JAPAN STATE

JAPAN-RUSSIA

Relationship

Implications For 

 THE U.S.-JAPAN

Alliance

Edited by

Gilbert Rozman

Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA

2016

Preface:







The U.S.-Japan relationship is at one of its post-World War II high-water marks. Last year’s update of the Bilateral Defense Guidelines, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s successful address to a joint session of the U.S. Congress, the Diet’s passage of legislation to allow greater military cooperation with the United States in some circumstances, and the signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership were all historic steps forward.[1]

However, as in any complex relationship between major countries, there are potential points of difference. Part of our mission at Sasakawa USA is to identify these differences and help find ways to address them. Russia presents a fascinating opportunity to do just that.[1]

The U.S. view of Russia is currently dominated by Russian aggression in Crimea, the Ukraine, and Syria. [1]

Japan’s view is quite different. Despite a recent increase in violations of Japanese air space by Russia, it is a relatively weak player in Asia; China poses a greater threat to Japanese interests.[1]

Although Russia still occupies the Northern Territories it seized from Japan at the end of World War II, Russia is a potential source of energy at a time when most of Japan’s nuclear power plants remain closed.

Adm. Dennis Blair, USN (ret.) Daniel Bob & Chairman and CEO Director of Programs and Senior Fellow, Sasakawa USA Sasakawa USA. [1]

“小池一強”都議会　
議場一変、議長も都民ファに
(17/08/08)

「ヒトラー動機正しくてもダメ」
麻生氏撤回｜ニュース 動画
News24h


ちゃんももと魚料理！
- VICE Eats
With Chanmomo

Introduction:

Japan-Russia Relations



 Under Abe and Putin:



Progress and Prospects

Gilbert Rozman

A breakthrough between Japan and Russia is being vigorously pursued in 2016. [1]

Sixty years after the reestablishment of diplomatic relations between Tokyo and Moscow, there is a prospect of a peace treaty and final resolution of their territorial dispute.[1]

Yet few have taken notice or considered the ramifications. This volume takes the prospect seriously, while recognizing the hurdles that stand in the way.[1]

It presents the insights of former diplomats and specialists from Japan and Russia, adding a U.S. perspective on geopolitics, and, in this introduction, draws together arguments in the volume while assessing the prospects for a breakthrough.[1]

We seek to inform readers about what has taken place over the past three years, and, even more, about the forces impacting this ongoing quest, whose strategic impact in the wider great power context could be notable.

This diplomatic effort has drawn scant attention for at least three reasons:

(1) listener fatigue, after earlier Japanese media sensationalism about a breakthrough just around the corner;

(2) dearth of news on any progress over three years of talks; and

(3) absence of obvious preconditions, since impressions of Abe and Putin do not suggest that they would be compromisers on territorial integrity and national identity, particularly as geopolitics and geo-economics seem to be pulling them apart.[1]

By pointing to factors different from those operating when hopes were dashed before, and conveying new information about Russo-Japanese exchanges and expectations, we make the case for why it is time to pay close attention, but with a sober outlook on conditions that complicate efforts to find an outcome welcome to both sides.[1]

【韓国崩壊
2017
年8月31日】
韓国の”被害者ビジネス”完全終了ｷﾀ
―(ﾟ∀ﾟ)―!!
韓国の要請を門前払いした、日本政府

It is more than fifteen years since the Irkutsk summit, when optimism peaked for a breakthrough in Japanese-Russian relations.[1]

After years of stop-and-go hints that serious talks would be resumed, always followed by mutual recriminations, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to Moscow to meet President Vladimir Putin on April 29–30, 2013 aroused hopes anew.[1]

Despite deep skepticism from observers and new barriers to be overcome, due to unforeseen geopolitical and geo-economic forces, Abe has persisted in looking optimistically at this opportunity to work with Putin and conveying that message through those who work with him and Japan’s largest circulation newspaper, Yomiuri Shimbun.[1]

In 2016, anticipation in Japan is growing for Abe and Putin to address the three main areas that will determine the future of Japan-Russian relations: the territorial dispute over four islands and the peace treaty linked to it; the economic ties across the Sea of Japan, with energy in the forefront; and the security framework for the Asia-Pacific region, with China in the background.[1]

In light of the great importance of ever more adversarial U.S.-Russian relations and recently unprecedented U.S.-Japan alliance coordination, the U.S. role must not be overlooked.[1]

「そこのけそこのけ安倍昭恵が通る！
」福島みずほ4/3
参院・決算委員会

For a breakthrough to be reached, there must be a territorial agreement leading to a peace treaty. Russia is keen on an economic arrangement.[1]

Japan is increasingly focused on a geopolitical payoff. [1]

One can see, in the chapters that follow, divergent notions of how a deal could be achieved. [1]

We should not forget also that Abe and Putin both have strong views on how to reconstruct their countries’ national identities, and the transfer of territory cannot help but arouse debate about what those national identities should be.[1]

After all, Japan’s loss of the islands plays a large role in its identity as a victim in 1945, while Russia has been showcasing its role as a victor, claiming that its acquisition of the islands was the just fruits of past sacrifices.[1]





Read more:
JAPAN-RUSSIA RELATIONS






The Antagonism between the EU and Russia


Japan Outpaces U.S. in Race
to Enlist Russia to Balance China



Why Japan and Russia never
formally ended the second world war


Iran’s Rouhani condemns US strike on Syrian airbase



Japan Poised To Seek Closer Relations With
The US And Russia Following Abe-Trump Meeting



? Russia's S-500: The Ultimate Weapon against
American Missiles or Paper Tiger?



Russian Aerospace Forces to Put S-500 Air Defense Systems
into Service Soon




China and North Korea's Greatest Fear:
Japan Armed with Lots of Nuclear Weapons

In Japan, Russia and China Find Common Ground

STRATFOR.COM

March 20, 2017

For the first time in three years, Russia and Japan have revived an avenue of negotiation that had stalled in the face of enduring tension between the two nations.[2]

Foreign and defense ministers from both countries met in Tokyo on Monday to hold 2+2 talks on security issues in the Asia-Pacific region. [2]

As expected, Japan took the opportunity to question Russia's recent attempts to bolster its defenses on the southern Kuril Islands, to which Tokyo has long laid claim. [2]

Russia fired back with its own objections to Japan's desire to build up its ballistic missile defenses as North Korea pushes ahead with its nuclear program.[2]

For the Russians, not to mention Pyongyang's Chinese backers, the deployment of U.S. antiballistic missile (ABM) technology around the world is becoming a bigger and bigger concern.[2]

The Kremlin's anxiety, on clear display in Europe over the past few years, has more recently come to include the Asia-Pacific as the United States wraps up its delivery of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system to South Korea. [2]

That these systems will extend the coverage of missile defense radars operated by U.S. allies to include Chinese and Russian territory is an obvious concern to Beijing and Moscow, since the systems will enable Washington to better track missile flights and tests in both countries. [2]

But their fears go far beyond these immediate consequences.[2]

Instead, Russia and China worry that the United States' devotion to investing in ABM technology could severely undermine their nuclear deterrents in the long run.[2]

After all, the latest generation of ABM systems — which are fairly scarce as it is — are woefully inadequate for defending against the two countries' vast nuclear arsenals at present.[2]

But neither Moscow nor Beijing can afford to assume that it will stay this way forever.[2]

For one, ABM technology could easily continue to mature and spread worldwide. More important, however, ABM systems do not exist in a vacuum.[2]

Rather, they complement the United States' strike capability. Russia and China fear that if the United States continues to simultaneously improve its ABM and strike capabilities, it could gain the ability to withstand a Russian or Chinese nuclear response in the wake of a crippling initial U.S. blow.[2]

The recent progress Washington has made in developing more precise nuclear weapons — and faster, hardier delivery vehicles to carry them — has only added to Russia and China's growing unease. [2]

On March 1, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists issued a report on the United States' pursuit of a new capability called "super-fuzing." [2]

This technology replaces the traditional fixed-height fuse of the W76-1 nuclear warhead with a variable, self-measuring fuse that greatly enhances a warhead's ability to explode exactly at the optimal height over its target.[2]

Coupled with sturdier and speedier delivery vehicles, more precise nuclear weapons would give the United States room to reduce the number of warheads it would need to send to destroy each Chinese or Russian missile in the event of an attack.[2]

Taken together, these strides in weapons technology could give Washington greater confidence in its ability to land the first blow in a nuclear war with China or Russia. [2]

In theory, a more devastating first strike on the United States' part would leave fewer Chinese or Russian missiles available for a reprisal attack.[2]

And that's where ABM systems come in: The more advanced Washington's ABM network, the better positioned it will be to act as a shield against the Chinese or Russian weapons that survive.[2]

Clearly, the concept of mutually assured destruction that has proved true of nuclear war doctrine for decades may not hold for much longer.[2]

Of course, most of this scenario is based on events that may never unfold.[2]

There is no reason to assume, for example, that Washington would want to launch a first strike against Russia or China, a move with global economic and environmental ramifications that would be devastating to the United States itself.[2]

Moreover, Moscow and Beijing have also both invested heavily in technology that they hope will prevent the United States from pulling too far ahead in the nuclear arms race.[2]

To that end, they have worked to re-evaluate arms control treaties, design more powerful and robust missiles, and fund hypersonic missile research.[2]

Still, neither Russia nor China will take any chances when it comes to preserving the credibility of their nuclear deterrents.[2]

And as Washington works to hone its nuclear capabilities, Moscow and Beijing can be expected to find common cause in stopping the United States from extending its ABM network's reach.[2]

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『非情のライセンス』野際陽子


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★8月14日録画★
「郡上おどり
徹夜LIVE CAM」
(ストリーミング配信済み)


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NHK World TV Japan:
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- Manga (with Tatsuya Egawa)


NHK news · weather information
(10:55pm) -
2017 09 02

,br /. Pilot Online
Weather Forecast
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September 1, 2017


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UK PM
Theresa May arrives
in Japan
to soothe Brexit fears


【日本ニュース】
安倍首相と英メイ首相
京都で非公式会談始まる
（2017/08/30）


英首相が日本に到着
首脳会談を前に京都で茶会へ
NHKニュース


PM to visit Japan
to reassure business leaders
- Amy Lea reports


Theresa May seeks
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concerns during
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[1]
JAPAN-RUSSIA RELATIONS

[2]
In Japan, Russia and China Find Common Ground

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